Another test of CICO, and also, is the Fitbit Charge HR actually any good at estimating exercise calories? Predicted weight loss (including a ton of exercise calories) over 43 days, compared to actual weight loss.

A couple /r/loseit posts recently have compared the predicted weight loss from CICO to actual weight loss. I wanted to try it out with my own data. I tend to have a ton of exercise calories (I exercise about 2 hrs a day) and my Fitbit Charge HR commonly reports ~800 exercise calories or so to MFP; common wisdom has been that exercise calories are always overestimated and I wanted to see if my predicted weight loss (from those fitbit exercise calorie estimates) is overestimated compared to actual weight loss.

Here's the graph

... so actually the Charge HR is pretty accurate for me! Even with an estimated 800-1000 exercise calories every day, my predicted weight loss is still amazingly close to my actual weight loss.

And, yeah, btw, CICO works. :)

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